When Does Optimizing a Proper Loss Yield Calibration?
Optimizing proper loss functions is popularly believed to yield predictors with good calibration properties; the intuition being that for such losses, the global optimum is to predict the ground-truth probabilities, which is indeed calibrated. However, typical machine learning models are trained to approximately minimize loss over restricted families of predictors, that are unlikely to contain the ground truth. Under what circumstances does optimizing proper loss over a restricted family yield calibrated models? What precise calibration guarantees does it give? In this work, we provide a…
Calibration is a well-studied property of predictors which guarantees meaningful uncertainty estimates. Multicalibration is a related notion -- originating in algorithmic fairness -- which requires predictors to be simultaneously calibrated over a potentially complex and overlapping collection of protected subpopulations (such as groups defined by ethnicity, race, or income). We…
Large Language Models (LLMs) often lack meaningful confidence estimates for their outputs. While base LLMs are known to exhibit next-token calibration, it remains unclear whether they can assess confidence in the actual meaning of their responses beyond the token level. We find that, when using a certain sampling-based notion of…
This paper was accepted at the Workshop on Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification at ICML 2022. Calibration is a fundamental property of a good predictive model: it requires that the model predicts correctly in proportion to its confidence. Modern neural networks, however, provide no strong guarantees on their calibration— and can be…
Model weights: https://huggingface.co/Comfy-Org/Lens PR: https://github.com/Comfy-Org/ComfyUI/pull/14077 You'll need to git the merge pull request if you're…